Strong Q3 for financial services and manufacturing firms as exporters continue to pivot away from the US
UK Trade Barometer shows exporters remain resilient amid macroeconomic challenges
America remains the most important single market but Transatlantic sales continue to slide as firms look to EU, Australia and Asia
Pulse-check shows manufacturers bounce back after tough Q2
Financial services shows biggest gains, according to regular MAG x YouGov poll
Britain’s powerhouse financial services sector saw global sales surge in the third quarter of the year.
Manufacturers also bounced back in Q3 – by shunning America to head Down Under and target Europe, Canada and the Far East.
Latest findings from the UK Trade Barometer – from MAG and the Growing Together Alliance of business groups – show the impacts of President Trump’s tariffs continue to bite as exporters across the UK divert sales from the US to other markets.
Looking forward, exporters outside of London are feeling increasingly bullish, with bounces in firms in the North and East of England expecting to increase sales in the next three months.
The Barometer – in partnership with YouGov – surveys more than 2,000 firms across the UK and in all business sectors about their trading fortunes in the last three months and intentions for the quarter ahead.
Across all sectors and regions, exporters continued to show their resilience - 55% said they increased global sales in Q3, which was up slightly on Q2. Between July-September, 37% said they entered a new market for the first time, up 2% on the previous three months.
Findings for Q3 include:
The sector that counts
51% of finance and accounting firms increased overseas sales in Q3 – 11% more than in Q2 and the highest increase of any sector
The US was still the top market (19%) but multiple EU countries saw big sales surges, such as France (9% vs 3% in Q2), Ireland (6% vs 3% in Q2), Spain (6% vs 2% in Q2) and Italy (5% vs 1% in Q2)
More than a third (36%) – also entered a new market for the first time, up 2% on Q2, with the US top but falling in importance and Australia (5%), Kenya (3%), China (3%) in the top 10
Finance firms are all more confident about Q4, with 27% expecting to increase sales to an existing market vs 23% in Q3
Making moves in new markets
After a challenging Q2, 50% of manufacturers grew sales to existing markets between July-September, up 6% on Q2
Australia is now the joint most important market (17%) having seen a 7% bounce since Q2 – the same as the US
Germany (13% vs 10% in Q2), France (11% vs 9% in Q2), Canada (10% vs 7% in Q2) and Japan (8% vs 5% in Q2) showed good growth, while China (12%) remains in the top five
Confidence appears to be building, with 38% (vs 37% Q2) expecting to increase sales in Q4 and 21% (vs 19% Q2) set to enter a brand-new market
It’s not you, its US
America is the country that has seen the sharpest overall drop in sales over the course of this year – 23% of all firms said they grew sales there in Q3, down from 25% in Q2 and 29% in Q1
Just 13% said they started trading across the pond for the first time, down from 14% in Q2 and 20% in Q1
Australia is the second most important market for all businesses, with five separate EU nations in the top 10
Canda, China, the UAE and Japan also make the top 10
Eastern promise and Northern optimism
Businesses in the East of England showed a spike in global sales in Q3, with 57% increasing exports to existing markets, up 8% on Q2
They bucked the national trend, with 26% growing sales to America, up from 23% in Q2. Australia also saw a spike, at 11% - up from 8%
More firms also entered new markets for the first time, at 42% vs 37% in Q2
And East of England exporters are also more optimistic about the future with 27% expecting to grow sales in Q4, up from just 19% in Q2
Optimism is also sweeping across the North, where 27% expect to increase Q4 exports, up from 22% last quarter
Northern exporters have turned away from the US during the course of this year, with just 25% increasing exports there in Q3, down from 36% in Q2
Looking forward, they are bullish about the UAE, with 12% expecting to grow sales there (vs 5% in Q2) and Canada, at 18% (vs 15% in Q2)
London continues to perform well, with 67% increasing sales in Q3, up 4% on Q2, and 49% entering a new marketing, also up 4%
Ken O’Toole, CEO of MAG - which owns Manchester, London Stansted and East Midlands Airports - said: “The fact exporters navigated a host of macroeconomic issues to grow overseas sales and enter new markets in Q3 speaks volumes about the UK as an island trading nation.
“Following the release of sluggish growth data, this goes to show how critical a role exports play in the overall economic performance of the UK.
“It is also encouraging to see both goods and services firms having a positive quarter – a performance that would almost certainly have been even stronger if it hadn’t been for the issues that impacted UK car production.
“That underlines what we already know: the UK has world-leading specialisms in sectors like financial services, IT and telecoms, alongside a proud history of manufacturing.
“This data shows the UK remains too reliant on London for growth but there are encouraging trends that indicate regional businesses are feeling more optimistic.
“The Government’s Industrial Strategy identifies the sectors being back to boost growth and productivity the most – all sectors that rely on international connectivity more than most.
“As nation, we need a policy environment that not only focusses on supporting high-growth sectors, but on the key enablers of their international success.
“With the Budget just days away, businesses will be looking for clear signals this Government is encouraging – not undermining – public and private sector investment in critical infrastructure – infrastructure that brings businesses across the UK closer to their customers, talent pipeline and key overseas markets.”
Henri Murison, chair of the Growing Together Alliance of business groups, said: “The upbeat findings for London are to be welcomed and through our alliance we are working to drive exports across the wider corridors of the North and OxCam, which are fundamental to UK growth.
“As trade to the US falls back, the growing importance of Europe is an economic reflection of the geopolitical realities of this year – and most likely of our future.
“We know that achieving productivity growth depends on sectors reaching their potential, and the renewed positivity in both manufacturing and financial services is particularly heartening.”